# Logic & Reason

***Daszak - The Guardian***

*Determining the origins and emergence of a pandemic is as messy and complex as studying a [plane crash](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jun/09/conspiracies-covid-19-lab-false-pandemic).*

*Just as an air crash investigator pieces together fragments at a crash site, pinpointing the origins of a new virus is **painstakingly difficult*** (not so difficult as you're making out Pete - we’ll look at that later) ...and **time-consuming** (= public money-consuming; to pay for the time consuming) ... *and requires **logic and reason***. (tautology, but agreed).

So using *logic and reason*, if the plane crashed in Wuhan - wouldn’t you investigate the site of the crash in Wuhan? Look for the black box? In this case: WIV’s internationally accessible database on which new viruses are meant to be logged?

As first reported by *DRASTIC*, that database has been mostly offline since [Sep 12 2019](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/349073738_An_investigation_into_the_WIV_databases_that_were_taken_offline), with *at least [100 unpublished sequences](https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ipetitions.com%2Fpetition%2Fopen-letter-to-the-who-covid-19-international%3Ffbclid%3DIwAR1b9thWIbw339OJ5NWB9T52ePlJNXJ8bzATz34NsViUL_sKYVW2TuVW5hs&h=AT3IJy5Z8vKFiPSixVXd0aASMRpnlGUaUotP_vQjTFZC3l27M9f90f_S3UtNXyYk2I9fSrHTrhooY3lDS4WrHueFB5AG6f__OPG0hPv9POqUXNc5VN9ev2CgZKhs_O_kfA) of bat betacoronaviruses* as well as unpublished experimental-results data from RaTG13 and BtCoV/4991, [collected from the Yunan mine event](https://jonathanlatham.net/a-proposed-origin-for-sars-cov-2-and-the-covid-19-pandemic/) in the spring of 2012.

What’s the *logic and reason* behind holding an investigation and not looking at that?

According to you, it will exonerate WIV & vindicate your [*open and transparent*](https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-02-02/International-community-hails-China-s-transparency-in-epidemic-control-NLgyc6JNXW/index.html) advocacy of China. So why not investigate it?

*I know that* (origin investigation requires logic and reason) *because this is exactly what our organisation, EcoHealth Alliance, does. We work around the world to identify the origins of pandemics, **map them** and analyse them, and use these results to **predict where the next pandemic** will likely emerge.*

*We then target these “hotspots” for **enhanced surveillance**, capacity-building and **risk-reduction** programmes to **prevent diseases** emerging.*

Rewind to 2017 BC, [EcoAlliance produced their predictive heatmap](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-00923-8#Fig3) - lets see how they went with their *enhanced surveillance, capacity-building and risk-reduction programmes to prevent diseases emerging.*

**[Pic a](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-00923-8/figures/3)**

![[image]](http://formosahut.com/forum/images/uploaded/202012280129155fe934eb9586e.png)

*Heat maps of predicted relative risk distribution of zoonotic EID (Emerging Infectious Diseases) events. **Pic a** shows the predicted distribution of new events being observed (weighted model output with current reporting effort)*

Most likely areas of new zoonotic crossover events, according to EHA were Europe, the US and Japan. China barely registers.

Here’s a close up of Asia:

![[image]](http://formosahut.com/forum/images/uploaded/202012280130115fe93523cae5e.png)

We’ve got three hotspots in China - Hong Kong, Shanghai and Beijing. Wuhan was not on the radar. It should have been. Given WIV was/is housing *more than 16 000 bat viruses*, it should be coloured blazing red.

Daszak's research partner, Shi Zheng-li (Bat Lady) [commented when first told of the outbreak](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-chinas-bat-woman-hunted-down-viruses-from-sars-to-the-new-coronavirus1/):

*I wondered if \[the municipal health authority\] got it wrong. I had never expected this kind of thing to happen in Wuhan, in central China.*

Shi had pegged Guangdong, Guangxi and Yunnan to be China’s hotspots for a bat to human crossover event. Her first thoughts were: *Could they have come from our lab?*

The bottom-line is:

None of EcoHealth’s scientists (with all their millions in funding) predicted an outbreak in Wuhan. So either their research has been a waste of money - or - there’s another explanation for why it happened in Wuhan - it came from the lab.

The fact that Daszak is still insisting that WIV be excluded from any investigation only serves to heighten suspicion.