Origin Tracing Myth

CCP Love-fest

As a WHO Expert Investigator, Peter Daszak would have us believe that tracing the origin of Covid is complex...painstakingly difficult … not exciting...pretty boring.   He emphasizes that anyone not trained in how to decipher genetic codes should stay out of it.

The CCP wrote the song-sheet that Daszak & co. are singing from.  It was likely cooked up at a special WIV Retreat from Jan 11-14, 2020, that was chaired by The Dark Knight himself, Linfa Wang (that directly resulted in the Lancet Statement).  WHO's ensemble (conducted by Tedros and Mike Ryan et al), then took on the role as lead vocalists.  WHO’s website tells us the origin is a riddle that can take years to solve.

Fellow WHO investigator, Dominic Dwyer from Australia, chimes in for the chorus:
There is every chance we won’t ever find patient zero or bat zero - but hopefully we can learn better how to react when another pandemic comes along.

Oh, so the investigation’s not about finding the origin - it’s about a better way to react for the next one - which so happens to be the CCP's totalitarian system of people control.

Tedros: As I have said repeatedly since my return from Beijing, the Chinese government is to be congratulated for the extraordinary measures it has taken ...very impressive, and beyond words.  So is China’s commitment to transparency and to supporting other countries. China is actually setting a new standard for outbreak response.  It’s not an exaggeration.

W. Ian Lipkin (WHO rep, author of Prox-O, described by BBC as the definitive paper ruling out the possibility of a lab leak): We should take a page out of what China did. ..  I've met Xi Jinping - he's very impressive.

Daszak: (China's response) is unprecedented...incredibly efficient...and open and transparent.

Andrew Mesecar, head of biochemistry, Purdue(!) University US:  The United States cannot do something like this (respond so quickly). So we are all going to learn from how China is responding.

So what's the big lesson in all this for the public to learn?

Daszak: The big lesson to learn from this one is: we have to spend the money to properly prepare now. We estimate a nine to one return on investment, at least.

The messaging from our publicly funded WHO operatives is:

1. Don’t expect answers to the origin question
2. Anyone who asks for a lab-origin to be investigated is a conspiracy theorist
3. China’s totalitarian system is the best model going forward
4. Get ready for the next one
5. Give me more money!

Arthur Koestler

But what if origin-tracing is not as hard as WHO’s operatives are making out?  What if it’s just a smoke-screen for concealing the origin?

Arthur Koestler, an intellectual and adventurer, makes a great point in his 1964 book The Act of Creation. To paraphrase:

The idea that science is a boring pursuit that is impenetrable to the layman is a myth created by scientists to protect their own patch.  By surrounding science in this fog of obscurity, scientists seek to keep themselves at arm’s length from the public, avoid accountability, and reinforce their own status. (Chapter XI, Science and Emotion)

On the contrary, Koestler argues science is both exciting and understandable.

Using that as a starting point, let’s take a look at what’s involved in tracing the origin - it’s not so complicated - in fact my guess is the CCP already knows. Dr. Daniel Lucey tends to agree:


They (CCP) have the capability, they have the resources and they have the motivation, so of course they've done the studies in animals and in humans. I think it's findable and I think it's quite possible it's already been found.  But then the question arises, why hasn't it been disclosed?

I can answer that - coz the truth threatens the whole fabric of our expert driven top-down system?  In China & the West.

Finding the origin is not theoretical astrophysics, despite what we're told. It doesn’t involve complex mathematical equations to determine unverifiable outcomes.  It’s straightforward detective work dealing with real world details.

Here’s what we know:

The closest relative to SARS-CoV-2 is RaTG13 at 96.2%, held at WIV. (Edit: since the time of writing a new candidate, BANAL-52 at 96.8% has emerged in Laos - an area from which WIV/EHA scientists collected viruses through the PREDICT program) (Remember, the virus discovered by Daszak and Batwoman (WIV-1) that was heralded as the origin for SARS-1 was only fractionally higher at nearly 97%)


Therefore, SARS-Cov-2 originated from Mojiang in Yunan, (or northern Laos), after undergoing significant evolutionary change via an intermediate species, namely pangolin - or - it was engineered at WIV.

Straight away that narrows the search down to a few key sites.   We're getting close already.

Theory 1: Natural Origin

Mojiang Mine Natural Origin Theory

Someone in the vicinity of the mine was infected through an interaction with an infected bat. (No bats (or pangolin) were sold at Nan Hua Seafood Market)

(Edit: In Sep 21 RaTG13 (96.3%) was beaten by BANAL-52 (96.8%) found in Laos. But it's the same logic - still has to travel 1000 kilometres-plus to get to Wuhan - and nowhere else.)

The virus was either ready to roll or may have undergone an undetected period of evolution within the human host.

That person could then have travelled to Wuhan thereby causing the outbreak.

*Note: The idea of an intermediate species, namely pangolin, was pushed by Nature Medicine, but we can safely dismiss this as illogical - see reasoning below.

Evidence

RaTG13, the closest relative, was collected from the Yunnan caves.

How to investigate

1. Blitz test bats in the Mojiang mine area (which is the exact same area that was reportedly home to the bats that caused SARS-1). You were doing that before Covid, so just redouble your efforts.

2. Test those humans living in the immediate vicinity of the mine. Or anyone who has been in the mine collecting viruses for research purposes.
3. Contract trace the first known cases in Wuhan to establish whether they had travelled from the Mojiang area or had close contact with someone from there.

Degree of difficulty:

None of that is complicated. It’s almost certainly been done already.

Problem with Scenario 1:

1. Given we can be pretty sure Chinese authorities would have already done the above testing, it’s a reasonable assumption we would know the results if it turned up anything that cleared WIV.

2. Why was there no outbreak at the site of the infection? It’s possible that the infected humans living in the immediate vicinity of the cave may have already developed an immunity (which could be easily checked through an antibody test) but there still should have been some sign of contagion in more populous areas of Yunnan.

*Some Western scientists (with massive CCP COIs) proposed the idea of an intermediate species, pangolin.  In this scenario, a bat from Yunnan vicinity would need to have infected a caged Malaysian pangolin (1000s of kms away) which would then need to be transported to the Nan Hua Seafood Market in Wuhan (more 1000s of kms away).  On the journey, the virus somehow underwent 50 years of evolution inside the pangolin.  Finally, in Wuhan, where they suffered 100% mortality rate (not good for a virus looking to cause a worldwide outbreak), a pangolin infected a human at the seafood market - where no bats or pangolin were sold!  The logistics of this make it impossible as a origin scenario.

Conclusion

It's unlikely, but it's not impossible. If 'patient-zero' travelled directly from the bat cave to Wuhan, 1000km away, probably by car, thereby not infecting anyone else, then stayed in Wuhan for two weeks or more ... it's theoretically doable.

On the positive side, being a small probability field, it's easy to prove one way or the other: trace the shit out of it.
If you're a totalitarian regime that's big on surveillance, you're tooled-up - it's not like you're gonna have privacy rights qualms.


The first reported case is mid-Nov.  We know it's highly contagious - the lying-dormant-for-years theory doesn't make sense - this virus hit the ground running.  There'd have been a period where people wouldn't have twigged - it's similar to the flu - so you'd expect that - but it's explosive by nature - so maybe a month before that?


So go ahead - use your high-tech-totalitarianism to trace it back to those first cases - let's say it is early/mid-October (though i'd bow to the CCP's intel on that) - now you've got to the origin window down to within a week or two.

Cross reference that with those locals in close contact with bats in the Yunnan area (including WIV/EcoHealth bat collectors) who travelled to Wuhan in that timeframe - bingo - you've got your origin.  Case solved.

Theory 2 - Lab Origin

Lab-Origin

Someone working for an Wuhan lab became infected with an engineered version of RaTG13 (or similar) then spread it into the community.

Evidence so far:

Edit: After this was written, the most damning piece of evidence of all came to light.  FOI emails obtained by Buzzfeed revealed that the scientists who wrote the notorious Proximal Origin paper published by Nature (aka The Pangolin Paper), all thought Covid looks engineered.  They admitted the paper was purpose-written to cover-up this probable origin scenario.


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Lab Origin - How to investigate

  • Contact trace employees at WIV & the less secure Wuhan CDC, a BSL-2 lab in Wuhan.  And workers at any other labs playing around with coronaviruses in Wuhan.  If they don’t want to reveal their contacts then put them in a Re-Education Facility and threaten their families - like you normally do - i'm sure you'll get it out of them.
  • Cross check with first reported cases.
  • Locate/interview WIV lab-worker, Huang Yanling, who disappeared suddenly.
  • Investigate allegations by Chinese and US experts of lax security at both facilities.
  • Access WIV’s database.  According to international protocols, work on novel viruses must be published.  Why did it go offline with unpublished material?  Is that material relevant to the investigation?
  • Interview all western scientist who were outspoken in denying a lab-leak was possible (Lipkin, Daszak, Baric, Holmes, Andersen, Rambaut, Garry, Farrar, Fauci, Koopmans, Drosten, Ryan, Tedros, Embarek, Nature/Lancet editors etc). Make all their Covid-related correspondence public.  Don't need to rely on China to do that.  Give them lie detectors - offer immunity to the first one who spills the beans.

Degree of Difficulty:

Low.  It's straightforward detective work.  Don't even need to be a world-leading-science-expert to do it - in fact it's better if you're not.  For sure the China-part has already been done by CCP officials.  So far no indication that the Western scientists involved have been interrogated.  Only explanation for why not is that US Intelligence Agencies don't want to know.

(Aside: Regarding point 5, as @Billy Bostickson reported, WIV said it’s Database went offline due to "cyber-security issues", which might sound like an excuse, but it makes sense that outside intelligence agencies would have tried to hack it. Did they succeed?)

Conclusion

The weight of circumstantial evidence points to a lab-origin:

  • the outbreak happened in Wuhan
  • there were labs in Wuhan manipulating closely related coronaviruses
  • biosecurity was lax at these labs
  • lab-accidents are common
  • analysis of the spike protein strongly suggests engineering

This adds up to the simplest, most logical explanation.   Which ... as they like saying in the trade ... warrants further investigation.

William of Occam was a 14th century philosopher who championed the keep-it-simple technique of analysis to counter the out-in-the-weeds logic of his contemporaries.  He will be turning-in-his-grave every time an expert tells us how painstakingly complicated origin tracing is, when the answers are staring us in the face.   Unsurprisingly, Occam was vilified by the experts of his time.

WHO Investigator Peter Daszak, expert of our time, loves banging on about evolutionary hotspots, while another WIV/Daszak GoF collaborator, Ralph Baric, says the constant mixing of different viruses creates a great opportunity for dangerous new pathogens to emerge. 

The fact is, as William of Occam would immediately point out, the hottest of hotspots was located in downtown Wuhan at WIV - where the constant mixing of different viruses created great opportunities for dangerous new pathogens to emerge.   It's a recipe for disaster ...

Ingredients:

deadly viruses
caged lab animals - (tortured btw)
entitled, unaccountable scientists recombining/evolving/engineering more deadly viruses

Method:
Add human error and stir. Allow to simmer for decades until it explodes.

Serving suggestion:
Deny you cooked it.

Theory 1: Natural Origin

Mojiang Mine Natural Origin Theory

Someone in the vicinity of the mine was infected through an interaction with an infected bat, or from collecting batshit.

No bats (or pangolin) were sold at Nan Hua Seafood Market - all but ruling out the wet-market theory (we'll get to the all-but soon).  Therefore: if a zoonotic-crossover happened, it happened to a person in the Yunnan area - who travelled to Wuhan.

(Edit: In Sep '21 RaTG13 (96.3%) was beaten by BANAL-52 (96.8%), which was found in Laos, which borders Yunnan province.  100-odd ks away,  So same area.   Exact same area in which the WIV/EHA Virus Hunters were compulsively hunting for their holy-grail - a bat virus genome that could either directly infect humans, or close enough, so it could be souped up in the Bat-Lab to become infectious to humans  Making it the same logic:  infected person still has to travel 1000 kilometres-plus (940 miles) to get to Wuhan - and nowhere else.)

The virus was either ready-to-roll or may have undergone a period-of-evolution within the human-host.

That person/host could then have travelled to Wuhan, thereby causing the outbreak. 

*Note: The idea of an intermediate species, namely pangolin, was pushed by Nature Medicine but it's illogical.  We can safely dismiss it.  See reasoning below.


Evidence

RaTG13, the closest relative to Covid, was collected from the Mojiang cave in Yunnan.  (Banal-52 was same area, just across the border in Laos). 

Theory:  If a bat-virus in nature that close to Covid exists, then it's possible an exact match exists.

How to investigate

1. Blitz test bats in the Mojiang mine area  (same area that was reportedly home to the bats that caused SARS-1). You were doing that before Covid so just redouble your efforts/funding.  (Check)

2. Test those humans living in the immediate vicinity of the mine. Or anyone who has been in the mine collecting viruses for research purposes.
3. Contract trace the first known cases in Wuhan to establish whether they had travelled from the Mojiang area or had close contact with someone from there.

Degree of difficulty:

None of that is complicated. It’s almost certainly been done already.  (That's how they came up with Banal-52 - by testing every bat in sight)

Problems with Scenario 1:

1. Given we can be pretty sure Chinese authorities would have already done the above, it’s a reasonable assumption we would know the results if it turned up anything that cleared WIV.

2. Why was there no outbreak at the site of the infection in Mojiang? It’s possible that the infected humans living in the immediate vicinity of the cave may have already developed an immunity (which could be easily checked through an antibody test) but there still should have been some sign of contagion in more populous areas of Yunnan.

* Some western scientists (with massive CCP COIs) put forward the theory of an intermediate species, pangolin.  They claim that a bat from Yunnan vicinity somehow infected a pangolin-host smuggled into Guangdong (1000+ ks away) from Malaysia (1000s of ks away).  On the pangolin's journey to market to a Seafood market in Wuhan (more 1000s of kms away), it miraculously underwent 50 years of evolution!  Sadly, the pangolin-hosts then suffered 100% fatality rate at the market - not good-going for any virus looking to cause a world-wide outbreak in humans.   Despite all these obstacles, it then infected patient-zero at the Nan Hua Seafood Market - where no bats or pangolin were sold.  That's not possible.  It's good evidence of academic fraud, but doesn't get us closer to our goal:  the Origin of Covid.  (Edit: After this was written, FOI emails revealed that even the authors of the Pangolin Paper didn't believe it - they thought Covid looks engineered - the paper was purpose-written as cover-up disinformation)

Conclusion

It's unlikely, but it's not impossible. If patient-zero travelled directly from the Mojiang cave (or Laos) to Wuhan, 1000+ks away, not infecting anyone else along the way, then stayed in Wuhan for two weeks or more ... it's theoretically doable.

On the positive side, being a small probability field, it's easy to prove one way or the other:  trace the shit out of it
If you're a totalitarian regime that's big on surveillance, you're tooled up - it's not like you're gonna have privacy rights qualms.

The first reported case is mid-Nov. We know it's highly contagious - the lying-dormant-for-years theory doesn't make sense - this virus hit-the-ground-running. There'd have been a period where people wouldn't have twigged - it's similar to the flu - so you'd expect that - but it's explosive by nature - so maybe a month before that?


So go ahead - use your high-tech-totalitarianism to trace it back to those first cases - let's say it is early/mid-October (though i'd bow to the CCP's intel on that).  Now you've got the origin window down to within a week or two.

Cross reference that with those locals in close contact with bats in the Yunnan area (including WIV/EcoHealth bat collectors) who travelled to Wuhan in that timeframe - bingo! - you've got your origin.   Case solved.